APC Winning States, PDP Winning Numbers – Demola Rewaju


APC Winning States, PDP Winning Numbers – Demola Rewaju

 

The huge problem I see with calling a presidential election state by state is the assumption that winning a state automatically translates to more votes on paper. This is a copycat syndrome typical of Nigerianmedia, copied from American media. In America though, winning a state automatically means winning the entire electoral college of that state, except in two states. If the Democrats win Washington by 51% to the Republicans’ 49% for instance, the Democrats win all the electoral college votes of that state. This is why winning a state in America is crucial to the electoral process because a candidate must win majority popular votes and also majority electoral college votes. Here in Nigeria, there is no electoral college so there is no winner takes all’ approach. A candidate may win more states but lose the elections by sheer number of votes.
If the opening paragraph reads like a slaying of newspapers and interest groups that called#NigeriaDecides so far state by state, then yes, it is. When in 2012 I called the Mimiko election, someone close to me sent me an email that I should beware of making outright predictions but I am a firm believer that the test of true punditry is to be able to accurately call elections whether wrong or right. Since then, I have called two elections: Governor Fayose of Ekiti’s election and Aregbesola’s election. For Saturday’s election, I set a background to how it will likely run.
There are no ‘secure’ APC or PDP territories in the eyes of political operatives. For Goodluck Jonathan, this is a key strength: his ability to win key votes in ‘unfriendly’ territory pushed him over the edge in 2011. The inidicator states of how this election will swing are Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Borno, Sokoto, Rivers, Imo and Jigawa. It wont be the states per se but the margins, the numbers. The low turnout in Bornomay mean Borno is not more important than a state like Akwa-Ibom where the turnout was quite high. The key is the ability of one party to challenge and force the controlling party to be on the defensive while winning as many votes as possible or even causing an upset. The idea is this: where the opponent feels he is safe and secure, attack him there as a show of strength and you just might cause a chain reaction.
So far, APC seems to have won more states but PDP leads in numbers. I cannot announce results and will not do so but even the figures from APC social media persons show that they seem to believe that the more states they win will equate a victory. PDP is winning numbers and cutting close into APC territory. The entire premise for The Tinubu-Buhari alliance was on Tinubu’s ability to deliver bloc votes for APC from the southwest. From all indications, the Southwest has not churned those bloc votes from Buhari just yet. I have always felt the north will indicate this election and I still think so. Let me just give an instance of how figures and states play out: the entire figures released unofficially so far for five southwestern states Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun shows an APC lead of less than 400,000 votes. In the only Akwa-Ibom result released unofficially so far, Gov. Akpabio has a 421,000 vote lead that obliterates the APC southwest margin.
It is still too close to call but I am confident that #WeTriumphStill.
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber. - See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber. - See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber.
Also on the losing list was the Senate Deputy Leader, Abdul Ningi, PDP, Bauchi Central who lost his seat to the All Progressives Congress.
But apart from Senator Ningi, other principal officers like the Senate President, David Mark who is returning to the senate for the fifth times, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the Minority Leader, George Akume among others retained their seats.
 Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Senator Chris Ngige representing Anambra Central from the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, lost the seat to a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Uche Ekwunife of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Smart Adeyemi, Kogi West, who is one of the prominent PDP Senators
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber.
Also on the losing list was the Senate Deputy Leader, Abdul Ningi, PDP, Bauchi Central who lost his seat to the All Progressives Congress.
But apart from Senator Ningi, other principal officers like the Senate President, David Mark who is returning to the senate for the fifth times, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the Minority Leader, George Akume among others retained their seats.
 Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Senator Chris Ngige representing Anambra Central from the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, lost the seat to a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Uche Ekwunife of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Smart Adeyemi, Kogi West, who is one of the prominent PDP Senators
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber.
Also on the losing list was the Senate Deputy Leader, Abdul Ningi, PDP, Bauchi Central who lost his seat to the All Progressives Congress.
But apart from Senator Ningi, other principal officers like the Senate President, David Mark who is returning to the senate for the fifth times, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the Minority Leader, George Akume among others retained their seats.
 Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Senator Chris Ngige representing Anambra Central from the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, lost the seat to a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Uche Ekwunife of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Smart Adeyemi, Kogi West, who is one of the prominent PDP Senators lost his seat to Hon. Dino Melaye, while the PDP candidate from Ekiti North took over Senator Olubunmi Adetunbi of the APC.
Senator Mark scored 99,538 votes to defeat his opponent of the APC, Daniel Onje, who scored a total vote of 50,115, while Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, PDP Abia South scored 1011433 to beat his challenger from the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, that had 70,502 votes.
Senator Bassey Otu who was forced out of the PDP won the senate seat for Cross River South, on the platform of the Labour Party defeating governor Liyel Imoke’s candidate and godfather of Calabar politics, Chief Geshorm Bassey of the PDP as well as Senator Banabas  Gemade who also lost the PDP primary ticket to governor Suswan was returned on the APC platform.
A statement signed by the Special Adviser to the Deputy Senate President, Uche Anichukwu, said that Ekweremadu, PDP, Enugu West was declared winner having polled 120,075 out of the 123,286 valid votes cast in the Saturday, March 28 senatorial election.
According to Anichukwu, the result, which was announced at Awgu Collation Centre by INEC returning  Officer, Professor Fab Onah, showed that 10 candidates contested the election with Ekweremadu’s closest rival, Honourable (Mrs) Luisa Achieze of  APC, who scored 2,314 votes.
Senator Ekweremadu in his acceptance speech said his election was a renewal of a political covenant with his people.
He thanked the electorate of Enugu West, the PDP family, clergies, traditional institutions and his members of staff for standing by him when the going was tough.
He said, “About six months ago, it was rather difficult for many people to believe that we would get to this point but eventually, we are here today. It is another evidence that there is God in heaven and I give Him all the glory.
“My commitment to Enugu people and Enugu West in particular has been renewed today. For me, I have the responsibility to serve them much better. I am conscious of the fact that my primary responsibility as a parliamentarian is to make laws and to oversight the executive.
“Also, I am committed to seeing to it that my people are well catered for by providing infrastructure and attracting projects generally to Enugu State and Enugu West in particular. I am committed to empowering the people to ensure they earn a living.”
He, however, stressed that unity of the people, irrespective of political leanings and disagreements was imperative for accelerated development, assuring that his representation would accommodate everyone.
“As for all those who were not particularly in support of my re-election before now, I bear no grudges. I would like to say that we are indeed one people and we are going to march together to the Promised Land; let everybody come and let us work together in the interest of our people.”
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber.
Also on the losing list was the Senate Deputy Leader, Abdul Ningi, PDP, Bauchi Central who lost his seat to the All Progressives Congress.
But apart from Senator Ningi, other principal officers like the Senate President, David Mark who is returning to the senate for the fifth times, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the Minority Leader, George Akume among others retained their seats.
 Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Senator Chris Ngige representing Anambra Central from the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, lost the seat to a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Uche Ekwunife of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Smart Adeyemi, Kogi West, who is one of the prominent PDP Senators lost his seat to Hon. Dino Melaye, while the PDP candidate from Ekiti North took over Senator Olubunmi Adetunbi of the APC.
Senator Mark scored 99,538 votes to defeat his opponent of the APC, Daniel Onje, who scored a total vote of 50,115, while Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, PDP Abia South scored 1011433 to beat his challenger from the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, that had 70,502 votes.
Senator Bassey Otu who was forced out of the PDP won the senate seat for Cross River South, on the platform of the Labour Party defeating governor Liyel Imoke’s candidate and godfather of Calabar politics, Chief Geshorm Bassey of the PDP as well as Senator Banabas  Gemade who also lost the PDP primary ticket to governor Suswan was returned on the APC platform.
A statement signed by the Special Adviser to the Deputy Senate President, Uche Anichukwu, said that Ekweremadu, PDP, Enugu West was declared winner having polled 120,075 out of the 123,286 valid votes cast in the Saturday, March 28 senatorial election.
According to Anichukwu, the result, which was announced at Awgu Collation Centre by INEC returning  Officer, Professor Fab Onah, showed that 10 candidates contested the election with Ekweremadu’s closest rival, Honourable (Mrs) Luisa Achieze of  APC, who scored 2,314 votes.
Senator Ekweremadu in his acceptance speech said his election was a renewal of a political covenant with his people.
He thanked the electorate of Enugu West, the PDP family, clergies, traditional institutions and his members of staff for standing by him when the going was tough.
He said, “About six months ago, it was rather difficult for many people to believe that we would get to this point but eventually, we are here today. It is another evidence that there is God in heaven and I give Him all the glory.
“My commitment to Enugu people and Enugu West in particular has been renewed today. For me, I have the responsibility to serve them much better. I am conscious of the fact that my primary responsibility as a parliamentarian is to make laws and to oversight the executive.
“Also, I am committed to seeing to it that my people are well catered for by providing infrastructure and attracting projects generally to Enugu State and Enugu West in particular. I am committed to empowering the people to ensure they earn a living.”
He, however, stressed that unity of the people, irrespective of political leanings and disagreements was imperative for accelerated development, assuring that his representation would accommodate everyone.
“As for all those who were not particularly in support of my re-election before now, I bear no grudges. I would like to say that we are indeed one people and we are going to march together to the Promised Land; let everybody come and let us work together in the interest of our people.”
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf
Johnbosco Agbakwuru
ABUJA – WHAT may be described as election tsunami has hit the senate following the recent declaration of the National Assembly election results which took place last Saturday as some Senators regarded as ‘big boys’ like Senators Chris Ngige, Smart Adeyemi, Olubunmi Adetunbi among others lost their bid to come back to the Red Chamber.
Also on the losing list was the Senate Deputy Leader, Abdul Ningi, PDP, Bauchi Central who lost his seat to the All Progressives Congress.
But apart from Senator Ningi, other principal officers like the Senate President, David Mark who is returning to the senate for the fifth times, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the Minority Leader, George Akume among others retained their seats.
 Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Adetunbi, Adeyemi, and Ngige
Senator Chris Ngige representing Anambra Central from the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, lost the seat to a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Uche Ekwunife of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Smart Adeyemi, Kogi West, who is one of the prominent PDP Senators lost his seat to Hon. Dino Melaye, while the PDP candidate from Ekiti North took over Senator Olubunmi Adetunbi of the APC.
Senator Mark scored 99,538 votes to defeat his opponent of the APC, Daniel Onje, who scored a total vote of 50,115, while Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, PDP Abia South scored 1011433 to beat his challenger from the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, that had 70,502 votes.
Senator Bassey Otu who was forced out of the PDP won the senate seat for Cross River South, on the platform of the Labour Party defeating governor Liyel Imoke’s candidate and godfather of Calabar politics, Chief Geshorm Bassey of the PDP as well as Senator Banabas  Gemade who also lost the PDP primary ticket to governor Suswan was returned on the APC platform.
A statement signed by the Special Adviser to the Deputy Senate President, Uche Anichukwu, said that Ekweremadu, PDP, Enugu West was declared winner having polled 120,075 out of the 123,286 valid votes cast in the Saturday, March 28 senatorial election.
According to Anichukwu, the result, which was announced at Awgu Collation Centre by INEC returning  Officer, Professor Fab Onah, showed that 10 candidates contested the election with Ekweremadu’s closest rival, Honourable (Mrs) Luisa Achieze of  APC, who scored 2,314 votes.
Senator Ekweremadu in his acceptance speech said his election was a renewal of a political covenant with his people.
He thanked the electorate of Enugu West, the PDP family, clergies, traditional institutions and his members of staff for standing by him when the going was tough.
He said, “About six months ago, it was rather difficult for many people to believe that we would get to this point but eventually, we are here today. It is another evidence that there is God in heaven and I give Him all the glory.
“My commitment to Enugu people and Enugu West in particular has been renewed today. For me, I have the responsibility to serve them much better. I am conscious of the fact that my primary responsibility as a parliamentarian is to make laws and to oversight the executive.
“Also, I am committed to seeing to it that my people are well catered for by providing infrastructure and attracting projects generally to Enugu State and Enugu West in particular. I am committed to empowering the people to ensure they earn a living.”
He, however, stressed that unity of the people, irrespective of political leanings and disagreements was imperative for accelerated development, assuring that his representation would accommodate everyone.
“As for all those who were not particularly in support of my re-election before now, I bear no grudges. I would like to say that we are indeed one people and we are going to march together to the Promised Land; let everybody come and let us work together in the interest of our people.”
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/election-tsunami-ngige-adeyemi-adetunbi-ningi-others-lose-senate-seats/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#sthash.izef0Le7.dpuf

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